Contractual Values and How to target the Draft.

For a long time, analytics has been arguing about positional value in relation to the draft - RBs don't matter, being the main drive of debates. However, there is more to which positions you should focus on drafting in the NFL.

Historical Hit Rate should be one reason you should focus on when you target each position. Depending on whom you ask, there are different definitions for a "hit" and the hit rate is certainly impacted by the selection bias of how the NFL teams draft.

Contractual values are another significant part of how teams should draft players (and the article's focus). In a league in which a hard salary cap plays a significant part, even if fans believe in the myths that the "salary cap isn't real". We have seen the myth disproved by the Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown trades just last year.

Some things need to be acknowledged first.

• The rookie salary cap is insanely lopsided as Ben Baldwin pointed out, the 11th pick earns half of what the #1 pick earns, and the #33 pick earns half of what the #11 pick earns.

• Each position has a different salary ceiling in FA. A top QB earns around $50mil a year while the next two position groupings of WR and Edge earn between $25-30mil. While RBs, TEs, Cs and SAFs max at around $15mil. (I built an Interactive Contract Tool Shinyapp which allows users to compare rookie contracts to NFL contracts to understand value better, link here).

• Teams have positional needs that can't be filled in FA. FA classes can make a big impact on how teams draft, if a FA class in a certain position is weak, teams will overdraft that position to compensate. Certain positions are also underrated by the NFL and have the best quality players available in FA and other positions never touch FA. Kevin Cole's articles on his Unexpected Points substack shows this perfectly (Offence and Defence).

• Teams should also evaluate if the position is a single point of failure (weak-link) or not. If it is a weak-link system position, then teams should focus on drafting multiple of that position highly in the draft. Eric Eager at SumerSport wrote a great article on it linked here.

So how should teams approach the draft?

I've split the draft into 4 groupings:

- Premium Picks (Top 10)

- 1st Round Picks (#11-#32)

- Day 2 Picks

- Day 3 Picks

Premium Picks (Top 10) should be a QB. A QB's hit rate (no matter the definition) is significantly higher if the player was drafted in the top 10. This is selection bias, but also survivorship bias. Teams rarely allow a QB that they think will do well in the NFL beyond the 10th pick; we have seen teams trade up for their QB, as demonstrated by Panthers trading up to #1 for Young/Stroud/Richardson this year (but also Mahomes/Chiefs in 2017, Darnold/Jets in 2018, Lance/49ers in 2021 and Fields/Bears in 2022).

But what if you have your QB? An example would be the Cardinals (with Kyler Murray) this year and can't find a trade down partner like the Bears. When looking at positional value, contractual value and weak-link systems, there are only two options in an ideal situation - WR or Pass Rusher (DI or ED). The draft class has no elite WR (unlike previous years), but luckily there is Will Anderson (ED from Alabama) and Jalen Carter (DI from Georgia). I would take Will Anderson at #3 if I were the Cardinals.

The remaining 1st round Picks (#11-#32) should still focus on the Superstar positions (WR and Pass Rush), but also look to focus on contractual values (Tackle, CBs) where the elite players are rarely available and average players (for example Orlando Brown) can be paid a lot of money. For example, the #11 pick this year would be the 33rd most expensive Tackle (pre-FA) and the 33rd most expensive CB (pre-FA). When every team starts a minimum of 2 for each position, you are saving a lot of money, presuming the rookie is a starter. The last pick in the 1st round (#32) would be OT#46 and CB#45 using APY, which is even more savings.

This year has a lot of OT depth according to Benj Robinson's GrindingTheMocks, there are expected to have 3 Tackles and 6 CBs - so CB is the ideal pick if you can't get a QB or a pass rusher. GTM has also has 4 QBs, 3 DIs and 6 Edge players meaning that 20 of the 32 expected players are high-value targets.

Day 2 Picks (#33-#102) tend to be the make-or-break for team development. Salary Cap considerations mean less (the highest % of Max APY for the 33rd pick is C at 18% which reduces to 9% for the 102nd pick using my Shinyapp tool that uses data from OverTheCap), and it is more about filling out the roster. Teams like the Packers and Bills arguably haven't won a Super Bowl recently because of a failure to draft well in rounds 2 and 3. Building out a roster means upgrading the weakest links in weak-link systems (notably Offensive Line and Coverage), and that is where my focus would be. Because of the weak-link system having multiple starters of the same position, a team could double-dip at the same position to enhance their chances of drafting a starter. That means that in addition to the already named OT and CB, I would be looking at Cs and SAFs where positional value is still fairly high, but salaries are significantly lower than other positions. According to Benj Robinson's GrindingTheMocks, 80% of the top 100 expected players are players who I consider high-value for Day 2 picks.

Day 3 Picks (102 to 261) are about finding starters in positions where the floor matters more than the ceiling. Positions such as RB, Guard and LB are positions where I would target. Guard and LB are part of weak-link systems and therefore bring value from just being adequate. RB is a position in which a committee makes sense and if they can bring receiving qualities or Special Team qualities, then it is a bonus.

That leaves a couple of positions I wouldn't target in the draft being TE and Special Team. The reason for no TE is because of the development requirement for the position. A starting TE needs to be able to run routes and block, which is a difficult skillset to learn. There are also always quality starters for relatively cheap deals compared to other positions.

This will be an interesting article to look back at after the draft to see how many teams followed the advice I gave out.